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A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.

That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the book, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social data, past examples and structural examples.

Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."

Request for Broader Debate

Westminster should participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."